What Changes Now?

If like me you’ve been scrolling through Twitter endlessly today, you might think the government is in the middle of collapsing. After David Davis and Steve Baker’s resignation just before midnight last night, and Boris Johnson following suit this afternoon, it’s easy to see why. After a supposed cabinet agreement was produced at Chequers last week, the two Brexit heavyweights decided that enough was enough, and left in protest to the governments swing towards a softer Brexit.

This afternoon in the commons May was defiant. She talked up her Chequers deal, and in a likely attempt to put an end to any further resignations reminded her party that we would be leaving the single market, customs union, and ending free movement of people into the country. Which, unsurprisingly, doesn’t match the message coined last week. As broken by Kevin Schofield a couple of hours ago, May and her team have also maintained that she will fight on regardless, and will take on any vote of no confidence put forward by the backbenches.

It’s hard to see why that wouldn’t be the case. Sure, the ERG and the backbenches have the numbers to put in their letters to Brady, but I highly doubt they have the numbers to win the vote. Many Tory MPs who currently sit on the fence know that a change in leader would lead to a leader in favour of no deal, and arguably could lead to Corbyn making his way into number 10. May also knows that if she does fend off the vote of no confidence party rules maintain she would be safe for a further 12 months, which would take us well into the transitional period of leaving the EU.

As I put forward in a piece late last year, Theresa May has always been merely a tool for the Tories as long as they need her. Whoever leads throughout the Brexit process will be tainted afterwards, and many leading Tory candidates will want to avoid this. May was, and still likely is, the person that will deliver Brexit, and would then likely resign or be forced out shortly after. Many colleagues would rather hold off and use the ‘Brexit betrayal’ line, and few Conservatives will want May anywhere near another general election after last year’s debacle.

Continue reading


The Politics we Deserve?

“Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right”, as the old song goes. Used to ridicule the music industry by Gerry Rafferty, but instead seems more fitting in encapsulating the current political climate. Actually, it would be kind. Clowns? Maybe the one from IT. Jokers? More like absolute jokes.

Obama once said, “You get the politicians you deserve”. Although I see the reason, I don’t personally think it’s quite that simple. Sure, if you vote in Donald Trump you get that kind of president and voting for Brexit has paved the way for what we have in Britain. But is that the public’s fault? Politicians have never really been particularly liked. At best, people tend to be rather apathetic towards the culture of politics. That was certainly the case during the noughties, where turnout at elections reached all-time lows. The problem is, that is misinterpreted.

Certain members of the left like to jump on New Labour for bringing in this apathy, especially throughout the younger generations. The problem is, it’s because everything was running well. Surely that’s the point of politicians. They run everything smoothly so that our lives pass by without even hearing from them between election campaigns. Usually, political engagement comes from instability, anger, and despair at who is in office. So, is it such a great thing?

Continue reading

Don’t Hold Your Breath on Another Snap Election

Many are pondering the simple question, when will the next UK general election take place? Due to the chaotic times at hand, many believe another early election is inevitable, and could well be next year. It’s easy to see why. The Tories have the slimmest of majorities being propped up by the DUP, Theresa May’s leadership is as strong and stable as a wet tissue, and she has enemies within her party waiting to pounce and drive her out of Downing Street.

However, I can tell you now there will not be an election in 2018, the reasons of which are plentiful. The first of which is Brexit. This week we moved onto the second stage of negotiations with the EU, which essentially considers the future relationship after we leave. This is where things get tricky, and it will take up most of the remaining 15 months before we leave. Expect very little time to be wasted on domestic policy until then, and there is no definitely no time to waste on another campaign and visit to the polls, no one in Westminster will want to risk it.

Another issue is no one in Westminster particularly is interested in even entertaining the thought of another election just yet. The Tories, first, do not want to risk the slim majority they currently hold, and their leader does not want to risk the house she lives in. The Tories also do not want to take a risk on their leader whom despite still being slightly more popular than Corbyn, would currently lose an election with Labour’s current slender poll lead.

The Tories will first want to find a successor to May, but not whilst she remains a useful tool. On the 2nd June, May told the 1922 committee “I’ll serve as long as you want me”, and that is quite literal. When the Tories decide it’s time to go, she will go. The party has no other leader ready to step in, and none of the candidates wants to take any of the flak from Brexit. Boris is pushing himself out of the picture, Damian Green might yet have to resign, Davis is beaten from Brexit, Rudd has a very dangerous majority, and Hammond is as out of touch as it comes.

Continue reading

Why you should vote to remain in the EU!

On June 23rd, the people of Britain are set to make one of the biggest, and most important decisions of a lifetime. One that will affect each and every person across the country for years to come in every aspect of their lives. Especially the younger generations. The ones who are less likely to vote. It is vital that young people register to vote and get their opinion in, because it will be them who have to face the consequences.

I think it’s fair to say that so far this referendum has been terrible, and most people just want it over with now. Both sides have thrown around figures, and have been guilty of scaremongering the public. Now Vote Leave try to claim they are not #ProjectFear, but throughout the campaign they have referred to Britain as ‘kidnap victims’, made preposterous claims over Turkish visitors, and even claimed that many immigrants are rapists and murderers. Many believe that the constant economic statistics by ‘Remain’ is doing the same, although these have much more weight, and are factual.

One important thing that should be noted is the lies that the Leave campaign continue to peddle, despite being told repeatedly that they are in fact lies. The biggest of which is sprawled across the side of their bus. They continue to claim that we send £350 million a week to the EU – which we don’t. It is the gross amount that is sent, but we first get a rebate which almost halves the figure, and more comes back to us through investment, and other aspects such as security. Stuff we would lose.

Also Turkey. Vote Leave, particularly Farage and Gove, have said that soon Turkey will be in the EU meaning that migration levels will soar. Wrong. For a country to join the EU they need to meet 35 chapters, and Turkey in roughly 20 years has met just 1… they are not joining the EU anytime soon.

Finally the Leave campaign like to make promises about that incorrect £350 million figure, and just where it would be ‘spent’ if we left the EU. In fact they have made so many promises, it would cost 10x the money that would be saved! They do not have a plan for when we leave the EU.

Many models have been mentioned by the Leave campaign so far; Norway, Switzerland, Canada, and even Albania! And here is the problem with each model. Norway still accept free movement of people, still have to pay membership, and don’t have a say in anything. Switzerland also still have to accept the free movement of people within the Schengen Area, and don’t get services through the single market like we do. Canada’s trade deal has quotas and tariffs, so would not benefit the UK, and the Albanian PM said that the UK should not want a deal like theirs…

Now, of course the United Kingdom is an influential force around the world, with many allies and people that we could trade with. However, this would be weakened by leaving the EU, and we would not have the balls in our court when trying to broker new trade deals. This would affect growth/economy etc, and the majority of national and international bodies agree..

If the EU is as bad as the Leave campaign make out, then why do other countries want to join so badly? As Frank Podmore highlights, ‘when we pool our power, we end up with more’, and to be on the outside of this looking in would be ridiculous. Britain has much strength with the EU and is indeed one of, if not the biggest key player. Britain played a role in setting up both the EU and its single market, and we were able not to become a part of the Schengen area, or the Eurozone.

Now the Leave campaign make out like the EU is some democratic force that we are constantly in disagreement with; but this is not the case. In the European Council since 1999, UK representatives have voted with the rest of the council 2,474 times, and against it a mere 57 times. We are generally in agreement with what the EU wants to do. And if you want to blame people, blame the UKIP MEPs that do not even bother to attend the Parliament to vote.

As with any election or decision, one of the biggest aspects should be the economic impacts. And this is incredibly one sided. The IMF, G20, OECD, PwC, and Oxford Economics have all said the UK would be worse off under Brexit. The Treasury released a report saying that by 2030 families could be £4,300 worse off per year, and that Brexit would almost certainly cause an instant recession. On the other hand Vote Leave can’t actually name one credible economic analysis that shows us better off. Brexit would derail the UK’s economic growth, as the CBI estimates that the average British family gets £10 for every £1 that is put into the EU, and that membership in the EU is worth £91bn to our economy.

We also get a lot of money from the EU. The UK benefits from EU grants and subsidies in a variety of different areas including public services, defence manufacturing, research, development, overall totally up to €1.3bn of funding. MoneySavingExperts’ Martin Lewis has also said that we are better off in, warning that we would have less money in our pockets if we vote to leave.

One of the reasons for this is because of the products, and services that we get from the EU. The price of everyday items would go up, something also admitted by Leave campaigners. Petrol prices would go up, with the AA warning that drivers face an annual £494 petrol bill increase if we leave. Being in Europe means lower prices at the shops, with the National Farmers Union saying that food prices would rise by 5% if we leave. Flights and holidays are also cheaper thanks to the EU. The cost of flights has come down by 40%, and Brexit would mean a drop in Sterling, meaning holidays become more expensive. The EU has also cut mobile roaming charges, and these will be abolished by the end of 2017.

Vote Leave also likes to make promises that leaving the EU would mean more investment and funding for many public services around the UK. This is not the case. Leaving the EU would cause so much economic damage that there would be less money left for services such as the NHS, not more. HM Treasury have said: “Tax receipts would face an annual £36 billion black hole. This is more than a third of the NHS budget and equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax.”

EU countries invest over £66 million per day in the UK, boosting growth in all sectors. It is estimated that only 10% of farmers would be able to survive without EU subsidies, which make up between 35 and 50% of their gross income. UK charities would be hit, as the EU in 2014 alone provided funding of over £200m, and the EU has also administered over £40bn in development aid. Both Northern Ireland and Wales would need to recoup loss of EU funds if we left, which would likely come from Westminster, leaving less money for England.

Another big area of uncertainty within the referendum is trade, and how this would be affected by leaving the EU. The main point to realise is that when it comes to trade, we need the EU far more than it needs us. 44% of our exports go to countries within the EU, 8% of theirs go to us. This means that when it comes to negotiating new trade deals, the balls are not in our court. We will get worse deals than we currently have. This means trade becomes more expensive, and the products/services become more expensive to the public.

There are currently 3 million jobs that are dependent on the EU, and that doesn’t include those in the supply chain. It would also take up to 10 years to negotiate new deals – which puts jobs, and the economy at a huge risk. As part of the single market, British businesses have free access to sell to 500 million consumers. If we left the EU, these trade deals would likely have tariffs and barriers, hurting our economy, and dropping the level of trade. Over 200,000 businesses trade with the EU, including 88% of SMEs, and the UK’s exports to the EU represent 12% of GDP.

Barack Obama has also said that the UK would move to the “back of the queue” for a new trade deal if we leave the EU, saying that the US are more interested in doing a free trade deal with the EU. Now many Leave backers say it does not matter what he thinks as he leaves office this year, but Hilary Clinton (the likely successor) has agreed with what he said. A German poll also identified that 29% of firms would leave the UK if Brexit happens.

The Leave campaign say that agreeing new trade deals would also cut down on some of the ‘ridiculous red tape’ and regulations that the EU imposes. However, this is a lie. Any business who wants to trade with EU still need to meet the regulations, even if they are outside of the single market. But the difference is that leaving the EU means we would not get a say on the rules. We are actually also far less regulated than most countries, including others like Switzerland that are outside of the EU…

Now although they claimed they would not base their campaign on immigration, the Leave side have now started to. Their boring rhetoric on Turkey, terrorists, and migration levels has been incredibly divisive, and they have told lie after lie. Now their latest idea is to implement an ‘Australian style points system’ for migration, but as the Guardian highlighted, this would actually increase the migration into the UK. Also, non-EU migration is actually higher than EU migration, something not looked at by the Leave campaign.

It’s also worth mentioning that anywhere between 1.4 and 2.2 million British people live in other EU countries – many of whom would have needed visas had it not been for the EU. The Leave campaign have no idea of what would happen to these people abroad, but one effect is that these people would likely be cut off from free health care, something they get from the EU and their European Health Insurance Card. EU membership has also allowed for 200,000 UK students to study abroad, and these people are 50% more likely to avoid long-term unemployment.

Vote Leave like to maintain that we are full, which is simply not the case. Only 6.8% of UK land has been built on, and the problems with public services are not because of migrants, but are because of this Tory government. Migrants are net contributors to the UK economy, and only take up 5% of the UK’s total workforce. 32% of EU migrants have university degrees, as opposed to 21% of the native population, and away from the economy and jobs, they enrich our social lives and culture.

Being in the European Union also creates a huge number of jobs for the UK. 14% of UK jobs are supported by EU investment, and further deepening of the single market could deliver an additional 791,000 jobs by 2030. The EU also has done an incredible amount for workers rights, adding a limit to weekly working hours, adding paid holiday, equal treatment, redundancy protections, eliminating discrimination, something the Tories would love to take away. Britain’s trade unions also want to remain in Europe, with the TUC, Community, GMB, TSSA, Unison, and Unite all backing Britain’s continued EU membership.

81% of businesses also support continued membership, including the UK’s largest business group, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Over 200 Entrepreneurs and start-up companies have also said that we’re better off in Europe, including Zoopla, Innocent Drinks and eBookers. As well as this, Universities UK, and over 140 academics across all fields and universities have already voiced their support for Britain’s continued EU membership, because of the opportunities membership brings to students.

Another important part of the EU is security, which is vital in today’s current climate with the rise of terrorism, and groups such as Daesh. The EU has helped to bring peace to Europe, whilst NATO has yes contributed, but also led to the Cold War. A top US general has argued that ‘Brexit’ could upset the NATO alliance, and the head of Europol has stated that leaving the EU “will make Britain’s job harder to fight crime and terrorism”. This is because within the EU we have access to rapid security information sharing without cost including DNA data and criminal records, helping us to tackle crime more effectively.

The EU’s European Arrest Warrant is also a powerful tool combating crime, and has led to over 1,100 suspected criminals being arrested and returned to Britain to face justice. The EU also boosts Britain’s foreign policy efforts, which has been shown by applying sanctions to Russia and Iran, and fighting piracy in Africa. If we quit we would destabilise the whole EU, and the only major global figure happy with that is Vladimir Putin.

There are also many other social and environmental areas where the EU greatly benefits the UK, which we could lose if we leave. The EU introduced rules to limit the sulphur in fuels to improve air quality, banned dumping sewage water onto beaches, provided air pollution targets, and introduced  laws to ensure the conservation of a wide range of plant and bird species, along with their habitats. The Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management found that 93% of ecologists believed the EU has had a beneficial impact on Britain’s ecology and environment, because of these measures.

Stephen Hawking was one of 150 scientific signatories to a letter saying that being in Europe means we benefit from research funding, and pretty much all world leaders have backed the UK staying in the EU. In fact the only prominent figures around the world that want Brexit are Putin, Trump, and Marie Le Pen. The EU helps us to tackle many current issues including both women’s and LGBT rights, making sure that equal treatment and non-discrimination is held up in all walks of life. In wake of the Panama Papers scandal the EU helps Britain to tackle tax avoidance, and helps to make sure big businesses pay their fair share.

If you are going to vote to leave the EU, you need to be sure that we could prosper, and grow on our own. You need to forget the rhetoric of a few biased, bigoted individuals regarding aspects such as immigration, and decide on what would be best for the millions of people in the UK. The EU is flawed in ways yes, but it helps us to work in partnership with other countries to reach a common goal. EU reform is already happening, and if we vote to leave we would simply be forfeiting any ability to help reform it the way we want it to be. We would have to simply put up with the laws, without any influence over them ourselves.

The UK can opt out to pieces of EU legislation with which it does not agree, which we have done in terms of the single currency and the Schengen Area. The UK for years has played a leading role in policy shaping, and a recent study showed we actually wield the most influence. Leaving the EU would be ‘doing down’ Britain, and giving us far less influence in the world. It would damage our economy, our trade, our security, our sovereignty, and the future for generations to come.

I urge you to make sure that you are registered to vote, and to vote to keep us in the EU. For our generations, and for future ones too. Register to vote here!

For more reasons and more detail on why we’re #StrongerIn, follow these links.

CambridgeForEurope  –  StrongerIn