Still a Long Long Way to Go!

It’s no doubt that Thursday night was a very positive night for the Labour Party. When the snap election was called, the Tories were 15-20 points ahead in the polls, and a landslide was on the cards. Even when we all started heading to the polls on Thursday, most were expecting that Theresa May would increase her majority, and Labour would lose seats up and down the country.

Alas, the result was very different, and the likes of YouGov and Survation were proven right. When the exit poll came in, I couldn’t quite believe my eyes. When the exit poll came true, I still couldn’t quite believe my eyes. I was one of those expecting at least a 60+ majority for the Conservatives and May, and I was so happy to be proven completely wrong.

I didn’t expect Corbyn to excel like he had throughout the campaign, and I didn’t expect the youth to turnout in the way they did – both are good signs going forward. Especially the fact that young people are turning up to the polling booths, I just hope that they continue to do so, even when the leader isn’t Corbyn. Young people are the reason for Labour’s huge increase in vote share, and they must stay if Labour are going to continue to move forward.

What truly does worry me, is that so many on the left, and so many in the Labour Party seem to be viewing Thursday night as some sort of victory. Yes, the results were better than expected, but let’s stick to the facts. The Tories won; they have the most votes, the most seats, and they are once again back in Number 10, albeit propped up by the DUP. Labour still lost. And there is a still a long way to go if Labour wants to get back into power.

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Time to Think the Unthinkable?

We are now less than a week away from heading to the polling booths, and suddenly, we seem to have an actual contest on our hands. Over the past month, the Tories lead has collapsed. Their average polling lead has fallen from 16% in early April, to just 5.3% now, and YouGov has even gone as far to predict a possible hung parliament at this stage. Britain Elects, who use the polls of polls average, have the Tories increasing their majority to roughly 70, but this is still a long way off the 150+ majority we looked to be heading towards just a few weeks ago. The question many are asking, could Corbyn do it?

One of the main reasons for the turn in fortunes has been both parties’ campaign performances, which like the poll turn, looked highly unlikely a few weeks ago. It’s clear that May’s campaign has damaged her reputation among the public, and the Conservative’s campaign has been to put it frank, shocking. From the lack of costings in the published manifesto, to the dreaded ‘Dementia Tax’, and the refusal to turn up at the recent live television debates, May’s impregnable brand has taken a big hit. For the first time since she took office, more Britons are dissatisfied (50%) than satisfied with her performance as PM (43%), although she does still hold a sizable lead in popularity over Corbyn.

On the other hand, Corbyn’s popularity is on the rise. Last month roughly 15% thought he’d make a better PM than May, this has grown to roughly 35% now. Whether it’s a heck of a lot of media training, unity across the Labour Party, or a willingness to adapt, it has brought improvements. Corbyn and Labour have had a positive campaign so far, although they have been given a helping hand by May and the Tories. Corbyn has shown in the past that it’s within election campaigns he seems to shine brightest, and his performances in debates has shown huge advances.

Another positive for Labour has been their manifesto. As I stated previously here, Labour’s manifesto policies have received widespread support from the public. 58% support re-nationalising the railways, water companies, and other utilities, 61% support the increase in minimum wage, 52% support increasing the top rate of tax, 64% back abolishing zero-hour contracts, 53% want universal free school meals for primary school students, and 59% back better rent control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve seen this all before. We’ve seen much of these election signs before.

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