Towns are Corbyn’s Key to No 10

The UK and its citizens are divided across the spectrum. Leavers are pitched against remainers, the young against the old, the affluent against the impoverished, graduates against non-graduates, but perhaps the biggest divide is between the towns and the cities. For years governments have seen and tried to use cities as engines of economic growth, and hoped that their increased prosperity would fund and carry along surroundings towns.

Towns have been left behind, especially when it comes to politics, and definitely when it comes to the Labour Party. Labour was a party founded on the working class focusing on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, but in recent years has become a party of the middle class, of ‘socialism fans’ as it were. Under Corbyn, working-class support for Labour rapidly fell to its lowest point ever. That’s not to say that town equals working class and city is equivalent to the middle and upper classes, but there is a strong correlation between the two.

Labour is currently stockpiling member support and votes in strongholds and major cities like London and Manchester, and this was as evident as ever in the election. The general election in June saw a 10.2% swing from Conservatives to Labour in cities but was just a 4.1% swing in towns. Labour made twice the gains among younger, middle-class voters in cities than older, working-class voters in towns, and gained the most ground in seats with increased capital. This is not just a recent trend, as the Tories have made a net gain of 13% over Labour in towns since 2005.

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No ‘Bregret’ Just Yet

Despite us having another 18 months of negotiations ahead of us, there were talks this week of whether the wheels had come off Brexit due to polling released by YouGov. The results not only had everyone questioning just where Brexit was heading (like anyone knew anyway), but even whether leaving the EU was a done deal due to changing public opinion.

So, what were the headlines? After 16 months, a record high 47% of those polled said they thought Britain was wrong to leave the EU, coupled with a record low 42% saying we were right to do so, a 9% net shift on the first 6 months of the year. 76% felt current negotiations are going either “quite badly” or “very badly”, compared to just 12% who believe talks have been positive. Almost half of the respondents believe a deal is likely, whereas 37% believe the opposite, and again almost half think a likely no-deal scenario would be “bad” for Britain. 48% believe the EU will come off better, whilst only a fifth think the UK will come out on top.

Theresa May’s handling of Brexit is also under fire, with nearly twice as many disapproving of her performance as approving (49% to 27%), a slight decline from last month, when the figures were 42% and 30%. 51% say that negotiations are proving more difficult than expected; a sentiment shared by both Remainers and Leavers despite ignoring such warnings during the referendum. Finally, more voters say that they have become more pessimistic about Brexit (34%) since the referendum than more optimistic (23%), highlighting the shift in toplines.

It’s hardly surprising we are seeing these results. Both the government and opposition have absolutely no clue what they are doing and contradict each other from one day to the next. Because of this, the likelihood of the UK crashing out of the EU seems to be increasing with every stage of talks. Having previously been the fastest growing G7 country, Britain is now the slowest. There’s a lack of investment as businesses are cautious about the future, real earnings are declining due to the depreciation of the pound, and the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast a £15bn budgetary hit (the equivalent of nearly £300m a week).

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Labour’s Working Class Woe

It’s no understatement when I say that Britain’s class politics has been turned completely upside down in 2017. As highlighted by Rob Ford, ‘Labour, founded as the party of the working class, and focused on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, gained the most ground in 2017 in seats with the largest concentrations of middle-class professionals and the rich. The Conservatives, long the party of capital and the middle class, made their largest gains in the poorest seats of England and Wales’. Labour shocked the country by winning in new places such as Canterbury, and the Tories continued to make big gains across the north of England.

For the first time ever, ABC1s are more likely to vote Labour, and those unemployed are now more likely to vote Conservative. As I’ve highlighted before, the UK currently finds itself more divided than ever before. The country is divided by Brexit, age, education, race, location, liberalism, and most notably, by class. Theresa May and the Tories have certainly been trying to angle themselves towards the ‘proud and patriotic working class’, those who are discontent with current levels of immigration, want beefed up security and defence, and predominantly want the UK to leave the EU. But the question is, has Theresa May won the support of working-class Britain or has the Labour party simply lost them?

Under Corbyn, working-class support for Labour rapidly fell to its lowest point ever, but this trend isn’t a short-term thing. In 1966, 69 percent of manual workers voted Labour; by 1987, only 45 percent did. Under Blair, Labour did increase its share of the working-class vote once more, but this was at a time where Labour picked up huge support from all segments of society. Between 1997 and 2010 support fell away; as highlighted here, for every voter Labour lost from the professional classes it lost three unskilled or unemployed workers. And since then, the trend has spiked.

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New Labour: Because Blair Deserves Better

Earlier this week I was sitting with a colleague at work, and as it does quite often nowadays, the issue of politics came up. Despite writing about and following politics quite avidly, it’s something I tend to steer clear off at the office. It started when he brought up Corbyn. I tutted, or sighed – my usual Corbyn reaction – and we managed to waste about 10-15 minutes on various topics. Many things came up: Brexit, Trump, Clinton, but the main topic was Blair.

My colleague is to the left of me, although apparently, he was a Tory a few years back (then again Corbyn spent years voting with the Tories…). When Blair came up, he came up with the usual lefty arguments: Red Tory, Iraq… oh, that was it. I sighed again, I tutted again, I rolled my eyes with disdain. Earlier this week I watched Alistair Campbell’s interview with Owen Jones and I felt like I was in the same position with my colleague. It was just straight in one ear and out the other, and would not listen to any form of reason.

Tony Blair deserves better, and so does New Labour. New Labour did incredible things. New Labour rebuilt Britain and made it prosperous and progressive again after 18 years of Conservative rule. New Labour brought in Sure Start, the Good Friday Agreement, devolution, they halved homelessness, dropped hospital waiting times by 69%, brought in 39,000 extra teachers, 39,000 extra doctors, 81,000 extra nurses, increased benefits and tax credits, and upped school standards astronomically. They increased maternity leave, introduced paternity leave, almost eradicated child poverty, and brought in the first ever minimum wage.

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Abolishing Tuition Fees is Wrong, But Wise for Corbyn and Labour

During an election where the Tories wanted talk of policy to be non-existent, and leadership to be scrutinised by the public, it was two policies that ultimately set the tone for the exit poll. One being the so called ‘Dementia Tax’, and the other being Labour’s pledge to abolish University tuition fees, something which was popular with younger voters. Tuition fees were actually introduced by Labour back in 1998 – although they had been on the cards for years, and were introduced a much lower cost than we see now. It was the coalition government of 2010 that tripled fees to 9k a year, and it was the Tory government of 2015 that decided to remove this cap, and scrap maintenance grants for students.

Corbyn’s Labour has had a distinct position on this since day 1; he wants to abolish tuition fees and has also mentioned before, although it’s not policy, that debt for current graduates could also be removed. And one thing it certainly did do, was enthuse younger voters. 16% more 18-25-year olds turned out compared to 2015, and one of the main reasons for this was because of policies they felt they could get behind, this arguably the main one.

There’s no doubt it’s popular, and that is why Labour and Corbyn continue to use it. But just because it’s popular, doesn’t mean it’s right, and it’s clear that abolishing tuition fees would not be a smart move. Firstly, it’s not a cheap pledge. According to Labour’s manifesto, the move would cost £11bn, and if Corbyn were to go ahead with removing debt for graduates, that is estimated to cost up to £100bn, a quite frightening amount. If both Labour and Corbyn are serious about reducing inequality in our society, there are many areas to focus on, and tuition fees are not one.

Let’s not forget also, going to University is a privilege, and should stay that way. Going to University means access to first class lecturers, specialist facilities, and world class resources. Going to university is solely benefitting the student, and is further improving their opportunities from the education they already have. Why shouldn’t students have to pay for this privilege? As highlighted by Hannah Putrus, if you commit to going to higher education, you’re making the conscious decision that the benefits of the degree outweigh the debt that comes with it.

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Still a Long Long Way to Go!

It’s no doubt that Thursday night was a very positive night for the Labour Party. When the snap election was called, the Tories were 15-20 points ahead in the polls, and a landslide was on the cards. Even when we all started heading to the polls on Thursday, most were expecting that Theresa May would increase her majority, and Labour would lose seats up and down the country.

Alas, the result was very different, and the likes of YouGov and Survation were proven right. When the exit poll came in, I couldn’t quite believe my eyes. When the exit poll came true, I still couldn’t quite believe my eyes. I was one of those expecting at least a 60+ majority for the Conservatives and May, and I was so happy to be proven completely wrong.

I didn’t expect Corbyn to excel like he had throughout the campaign, and I didn’t expect the youth to turnout in the way they did – both are good signs going forward. Especially the fact that young people are turning up to the polling booths, I just hope that they continue to do so, even when the leader isn’t Corbyn. Young people are the reason for Labour’s huge increase in vote share, and they must stay if Labour are going to continue to move forward.

What truly does worry me, is that so many on the left, and so many in the Labour Party seem to be viewing Thursday night as some sort of victory. Yes, the results were better than expected, but let’s stick to the facts. The Tories won; they have the most votes, the most seats, and they are once again back in Number 10, albeit propped up by the DUP. Labour still lost. And there is a still a long way to go if Labour wants to get back into power.

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Time to Think the Unthinkable?

We are now less than a week away from heading to the polling booths, and suddenly, we seem to have an actual contest on our hands. Over the past month, the Tories lead has collapsed. Their average polling lead has fallen from 16% in early April, to just 5.3% now, and YouGov has even gone as far to predict a possible hung parliament at this stage. Britain Elects, who use the polls of polls average, have the Tories increasing their majority to roughly 70, but this is still a long way off the 150+ majority we looked to be heading towards just a few weeks ago. The question many are asking, could Corbyn do it?

One of the main reasons for the turn in fortunes has been both parties’ campaign performances, which like the poll turn, looked highly unlikely a few weeks ago. It’s clear that May’s campaign has damaged her reputation among the public, and the Conservative’s campaign has been to put it frank, shocking. From the lack of costings in the published manifesto, to the dreaded ‘Dementia Tax’, and the refusal to turn up at the recent live television debates, May’s impregnable brand has taken a big hit. For the first time since she took office, more Britons are dissatisfied (50%) than satisfied with her performance as PM (43%), although she does still hold a sizable lead in popularity over Corbyn.

On the other hand, Corbyn’s popularity is on the rise. Last month roughly 15% thought he’d make a better PM than May, this has grown to roughly 35% now. Whether it’s a heck of a lot of media training, unity across the Labour Party, or a willingness to adapt, it has brought improvements. Corbyn and Labour have had a positive campaign so far, although they have been given a helping hand by May and the Tories. Corbyn has shown in the past that it’s within election campaigns he seems to shine brightest, and his performances in debates has shown huge advances.

Another positive for Labour has been their manifesto. As I stated previously here, Labour’s manifesto policies have received widespread support from the public. 58% support re-nationalising the railways, water companies, and other utilities, 61% support the increase in minimum wage, 52% support increasing the top rate of tax, 64% back abolishing zero-hour contracts, 53% want universal free school meals for primary school students, and 59% back better rent control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve seen this all before. We’ve seen much of these election signs before.

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