Don’t Hold Your Breath on Another Snap Election

Many are pondering the simple question, when will the next UK general election take place? Due to the chaotic times at hand, many believe another early election is inevitable, and could well be next year. It’s easy to see why. The Tories have the slimmest of majorities being propped up by the DUP, Theresa May’s leadership is as strong and stable as a wet tissue, and she has enemies within her party waiting to pounce and drive her out of Downing Street.

However, I can tell you now there will not be an election in 2018, the reasons of which are plentiful. The first of which is Brexit. This week we moved onto the second stage of negotiations with the EU, which essentially considers the future relationship after we leave. This is where things get tricky, and it will take up most of the remaining 15 months before we leave. Expect very little time to be wasted on domestic policy until then, and there is no definitely no time to waste on another campaign and visit to the polls, no one in Westminster will want to risk it.

Another issue is no one in Westminster particularly is interested in even entertaining the thought of another election just yet. The Tories, first, do not want to risk the slim majority they currently hold, and their leader does not want to risk the house she lives in. The Tories also do not want to take a risk on their leader whom despite still being slightly more popular than Corbyn, would currently lose an election with Labour’s current slender poll lead.

The Tories will first want to find a successor to May, but not whilst she remains a useful tool. On the 2nd June, May told the 1922 committee “I’ll serve as long as you want me”, and that is quite literal. When the Tories decide it’s time to go, she will go. The party has no other leader ready to step in, and none of the candidates wants to take any of the flak from Brexit. Boris is pushing himself out of the picture, Damian Green might yet have to resign, Davis is beaten from Brexit, Rudd has a very dangerous majority, and Hammond is as out of touch as it comes.

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Club vs Country – A Clear Winner

This week a clip from BT’s Premier League Tonight show has been going viral, shared by fans, pundits, and ex-players alike. The concept is simple. Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, and Steven Gerrard are asked about their England days, and why the ‘golden generation’ failed to deliver. The question wasn’t pulled out of thin air but was asked because of an interview with Rio that had taken place only earlier that week. In it, he talked about his friendship with Frank, and how it broke down during their playing days because of the club/country divide.

All three players were quite to the point in their responses, and their reasons were many. One was the issue raised by Rio in his previous issue. All three players were key players at top Premier League clubs, and Rio and Frank especially were jostling for the league each year with Manchester United and Chelsea respectively. In a league where the two sides shared the trophy, often with just a few points between them, neither player wanted to give up any secrets or show weakness to the other. This would mean avoiding each other whilst with the national team, eating apart, and would cause team factions to start appearing.

Jake Humphrey reacted with the shock that most England fans would. “So, were you effectively putting your club before your country?” he asked them all. They all immediately recoiled “no”, but all agreed that it would have hampered the national team. They listed off plenty of other reasons for the team’s failure: managers, formations, plans, injuries, and the expectations from the fans themselves. But it raises the age-old question, is a club now more important than a country?

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The First Brexit Budget

The big story of the past week was, of course, the Budget, not Philip Hammond’s most wonderful time of the year. After his disastrous first budget which featured the quickest U-turn in history, he was trying to play it safe, and it worked. It barely made the news, and all his rivals looking to get him out of the job will have to postpone their plans for sabotage. It was a budget that was meant to appease as many individuals and parties as possible whether it be Theresa May, Brexiteers, or even young people, and it was the first of many Brexit budgets.

It was described by Robert Peston as the most boring budget of all he has covered, and on the surface, he’s correct, but there were some very un-boring and worrying undertones. The big announcements were the stamp duty charge changes, including abolishment for house purchases of under 300k, the changes to Universal credit, the extra funding for the NHS, and the extra money for Brexit preparation in case of a no deal situation. But the big story was the OBR forecasts, and the rather bleak economic outlook we have ahead of us.

Hammond announced stagnant GDP growth forecasts for the next five years: 1.4%, 1.3%, 1.3%, 1.5%, 1.6%, this compared to the 2.5% long-term growth rate forecast just two years ago before Brexit. This is the first time in modern history that economic growth is predicted to fall below 2% in every forecast year. Borrowing is continuing to grow, and the UK national debt continues to rise, almost double what it was when the Tories took over from Labour in 2010. The Tories continue to blame this mess on the previous Labour government, but the truth is that all of this is on them.

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My Self Care Activities

When you suffer from a mental illness, it’s important that you regularly engage in self-care to give your mental health the same attention as your physical health. It’s easy to forget to look after ourselves from time to time, especially when life gets tough and stressful. This is where self-care comes in. Self-care is simply the act of caring for yourself and doing things that you enjoy and benefit from. Whether it’s exercise, relaxing, indulging, introverting, whatever helps you is good!

The first act of self-care is to arguably get to know yourself and learn to spot the signs of when you are struggling to cope. Once you become aware of these signs, it means you can sense them coming, and even plan to combat them. You might find that different activities help with individual situations, and there is not one kind of self-care that fits all for you. Therefore, it’s useful to build yourself a self-care plan, something you can go to. These can be individual plans for specific events, times, and places; you can know what the issues are, and from that know the steps you can take to help make yourself feel better.

Here are some of my self-care activities that may resonate with you:

Keeping myself busy/projects
I am someone who always needs the next project to work on, the next blog post to write, and without that it’s quite easy for me to feel lost. Projects, essays, and lectures at University, loathed by most, was used as a form of self-care for me. Ploughing myself into work was a distraction, albeit not always a healthy one. Even now I like to keep myself as busy as I can whether it be at work or at home.

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Towns are Corbyn’s Key to No 10

The UK and its citizens are divided across the spectrum. Leavers are pitched against remainers, the young against the old, the affluent against the impoverished, graduates against non-graduates, but perhaps the biggest divide is between the towns and the cities. For years governments have seen and tried to use cities as engines of economic growth, and hoped that their increased prosperity would fund and carry along surroundings towns.

Towns have been left behind, especially when it comes to politics, and definitely when it comes to the Labour Party. Labour was a party founded on the working class focusing on redistributing resources from the rich to the poor, but in recent years has become a party of the middle class, of ‘socialism fans’ as it were. Under Corbyn, working-class support for Labour rapidly fell to its lowest point ever. That’s not to say that town equals working class and city is equivalent to the middle and upper classes, but there is a strong correlation between the two.

Labour is currently stockpiling member support and votes in strongholds and major cities like London and Manchester, and this was as evident as ever in the election. The general election in June saw a 10.2% swing from Conservatives to Labour in cities but was just a 4.1% swing in towns. Labour made twice the gains among younger, middle-class voters in cities than older, working-class voters in towns, and gained the most ground in seats with increased capital. This is not just a recent trend, as the Tories have made a net gain of 13% over Labour in towns since 2005.

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The Issue of Graduate Depression

Depression and other mental health issues among students are well documented, and finally, are being discussed and treated more and more. From freshers week to final exams, money worries to exhaustion and loneliness, University is riddled with huge pitfalls for students. But, the problems don’t suddenly end there. Everyone focuses on mental health at University, but no one really focuses on the mental health of students after they have graduated.

Graduate depression is a very real thing, and for a lot of students is unexpected. Dealing with major life-changing transitions after university is tough, and it’s taxing for graduates to cope with an overwhelming mix of emotions once they’ve reached the end of their studies. Statistics show that one in four students suffers from depression during their studies, but the problem is that no official figures exist for those who have just graduated, because once students leave university, they seem to slip out off the radar. 95% of those asked by Claire Dyckhoff, do believe that post-university depression is very real, and 87% say there needs to be more exposure shone on it, especially by Universities.

Finishing university is supposed to be a wonderful time. You are free of the constraints of education, and suddenly you find yourself out and thrust into the open world full of possibilities. After three or more years of demanding coursework and gruelling exams, it’s very easy to suddenly be met and overcome with a feeling of ‘what now?’ as you don’t have concrete plans and may not even be too sure what it is you want to do with your life.

Some students might have graduate jobs already lined up, but for a huge majority, this is not the case. We all know it’s a tough market out there too, so graduate jobs can take time to locate and secure. It can feel as though you’re seemingly applying for dozens of jobs, all of which are incredibly competitive, and it is very disheartening to receive rejection after rejection. You feel astounded that all employers seem to want their graduate candidates to have unrealistic experience for an entry-level job, and when every friend and family member constantly quizzes you on what you’re doing next, you just don’t know what to say.

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No ‘Bregret’ Just Yet

Despite us having another 18 months of negotiations ahead of us, there were talks this week of whether the wheels had come off Brexit due to polling released by YouGov. The results not only had everyone questioning just where Brexit was heading (like anyone knew anyway), but even whether leaving the EU was a done deal due to changing public opinion.

So, what were the headlines? After 16 months, a record high 47% of those polled said they thought Britain was wrong to leave the EU, coupled with a record low 42% saying we were right to do so, a 9% net shift on the first 6 months of the year. 76% felt current negotiations are going either “quite badly” or “very badly”, compared to just 12% who believe talks have been positive. Almost half of the respondents believe a deal is likely, whereas 37% believe the opposite, and again almost half think a likely no-deal scenario would be “bad” for Britain. 48% believe the EU will come off better, whilst only a fifth think the UK will come out on top.

Theresa May’s handling of Brexit is also under fire, with nearly twice as many disapproving of her performance as approving (49% to 27%), a slight decline from last month, when the figures were 42% and 30%. 51% say that negotiations are proving more difficult than expected; a sentiment shared by both Remainers and Leavers despite ignoring such warnings during the referendum. Finally, more voters say that they have become more pessimistic about Brexit (34%) since the referendum than more optimistic (23%), highlighting the shift in toplines.

It’s hardly surprising we are seeing these results. Both the government and opposition have absolutely no clue what they are doing and contradict each other from one day to the next. Because of this, the likelihood of the UK crashing out of the EU seems to be increasing with every stage of talks. Having previously been the fastest growing G7 country, Britain is now the slowest. There’s a lack of investment as businesses are cautious about the future, real earnings are declining due to the depreciation of the pound, and the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast a £15bn budgetary hit (the equivalent of nearly £300m a week).

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