In 2016, we entered election day almost expecting a Clinton win. That was wrong of us. We made the mistake of believing that someone like Trump could not win the presidency, and we mistook a 70-80% chance of a Clinton victory as being a done deal. Ironically, entering 2020, people are now making the opposite mistake. Trump enters the 2020 election with a slimmer chance of victory than 4 years ago, with most forecasters giving him roughly 10-15% chance of victory. However, the general gut consensus seems to be that his chances are understated, and a Trump victory would be the fitting way to end such a terrible year. But this is wrong. This election is vastly different to its predecessor, and here are a few reasons why.
Incumbency – Trump is fighting this election as the incumbent president rather than the outsider maverick. Many Trump voters swung his way because they wanted something different and thought he might shake things up. Of course, there may be many that believe they made the right call, but there will also be a lot of voters who regret that decision. Trump has been in the White House for 4 years, and now has a record to defend, and there will not be many voters across the country who have not made their mind up on the president.
The Hilary Factor – One huge advantage for Trump in 2016 was his opponent. Hilary Clinton was a very divisive figure across the country, and her approval ratings were not good. In the final week before the election Clinton had an average net approval of -12.6, compared to Trump’s -21. If we compare this to the final week before the 2020 election, Trump has a net approval of -12.8, and Biden +6.2. Whereas Trump was seen as the best of a bad choice for many 4 years ago, the same cannot be said now.
Narrow Path to Victory – When it comes to today’s election, there are of course the usual swing states to keep an eye on. The big difference between now and 2016 is, according to current polling, there is a much narrower path to victory for Trump. 4 years ago, Trump was polling significantly better across the rust belt (WI, PA, OH, MI), which meant even if he did not perform across the sun belt (FL, NC, GA, AZ), his plan A, there was still a route for him to the White House. The polling across the rust belt for Trump is much worse this year, which means that Trump needs to sweep the sun belt, and hope to hold PA. Although anything can happen, if Biden holds PA (Pennsylvania), Trump’s chances of re-election are tiny.
COVID-19 – If COVID-19 had never existed, this election would be vastly different, and almost certainly much closer. Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been an absolute shambles, meaning the country has never had a handle on cases, and the US is arguably the worst affected country worldwide. The timings of state case waves will also hinder the President. Many of the sun belt states had huge waves over the summer, and in the run up to the election the rust belt has seen some of the biggest case increases, highlighting Trump’s poor handling of the crisis. Not good news for the President, who is already polling significantly behind across the rust belt.
Trump can of course still win this election, but it would take a large polling error larger than that of 2016. If Biden holds WI, MN, MI as expected, then winning PA would signal the end for Trump. Even if Trump takes PA, there are a lot of routes for Biden through the sun belt states of FL, AZ, NC, or GA. Trump needs everything to land just right for victory, but maybe that would be 2020 summed up.
Wake's World 