One Thing That Unites Us on Brexit, We’re All Losers Here

Quiet weeks in Westminster are now a thing of the past, and the Brexit soap opera rolls on. After securing an extension to Article 50 (dependant on the outcome of particular votes) MPs descended on the Commons this week in the hope to finally agree on something. Alas, they could not.

A series of indicative votes were held on Wednesday to see which Brexit resolutions were the most popular with MPs. These options included no deal, a peoples vote, a customs union, Labour’s plan, and a Common Market 2.0 – in effect the Norway deal. Although none commanded a majority, the real winners were the permanent customs union, and rather surprisingly the Beckett amendment for a peoples vote on the agreed deal which attracted the most ayes.

On Friday Theresa May tried once more to get her deal through parliament, albeit this time just the withdrawal agreement without the political declaration. The vote was much closer but once again fell short leaving us in limbo once more. Next week will see more indicative votes in the hope to reach an impasse, but as it stands, we were due to leave on the 12^th April unless a compromise is found, or May swallows her pride and calls for a long extension – or even possibly a general election.

Since the referendum, I’ve felt a lot of emotion, whether it be anger, sadness, or a sense of loss. But a new feeling hit me this week, one single thought. “Why on earth are we doing this?” Because at the end of the day, we’re all just losers in this madness, and here’s why…

Time for Labour to Lead

It’s hard to be a so-called moderate in the UK these days. Not only do you find both parties veering further towards each wing, you also see that UK politics is now completely devoid of rationality as we hurtle towards Brexit. Alastair Campbell describes Labour’s position as “constructive ambiguity”, I find that to be a kind assessment. Both parties believe the argument is sorted, and both are under the false illusion that a hard Brexit was voted for.

Labour’s policy seems to be to appeal to leavers whilst hoping that their pro-European membership wouldn’t feel compelled to vote for any other party. At some point, this has to give. Mark Carney recently revealed that household incomes are about £900 per household lower than was forecast back in May 2016, and due to Brexit, the economy is roughly 2% lower than it would have been had we voted to remain in the EU two years ago. If Corbyn and McDonnell want to implement their manifesto promises, a hard Brexit is simply out of the question.

In 2017, the ambiguity worked. Leavers felt that Corbyn wanted to leave the EU as much as them, and Remainers saw Labour as the only route to blunt May’s push for hard Brexit. Again, this has to give, and it seems it’s the Remainers who are buckling. In 2017 the party was able to shift the focus onto other issues such as healthcare, but with Brexit day looming that strategy is out of the window. Only 26% think that Labour’s position on Brexit is clear, while 60% believe it’s unclear.

The public overwhelmingly favours the PM’s handling of Brexit, with 32% approval compared to a measly 19% for Corbyn. May is also impressing far more leave voters than Corbyn is remainers, 40% of leavers back May, just 26% of those who voted to remain back Corbyn’s treatment of Brexit. Labour is also losing the support of young people; last year 19% more 18-34-year-olds backed Corbyn over May, now the PM has a 2% lead. As Labour members shift, Corbyn stays rooted.

Plan B Politics

As Stephen Bush’s piece last week highlighted, there are a finite number of messages a political party can run on. Typically, these positions don’t change between elections because they are so simple: “things would work better with us in charge”. 2017, however, was a turning point for both parties.

When Jeremy Corbyn rose to victory in Labour’s leadership election in 2015, he did so on the back of a promise of a new type of politics. Many chose him because he offered something the other three candidates seemingly did not, and that was hope. Corbyn famously asserted he would bring a new straight talking, honest politics into the Labour party, something he really hasn’t done. He was meant to be the politician who could finally energise the dwindling youth vote and bring non-voters out into the voting booths for the first time.

Fast forward to June 2017, and Labour had returned from a near 20-point deficit in the polls to force a hung parliament. A dismal campaign from Theresa May gave Corbyn the wind in his sails, and policies such as the abolishment of tuition fees had on the face of it galvanised the youth to an astonishing spike in turnout. However, as we now know, this wasn’t exactly the case.

Recently, the British Electoral Survey found that turnout did not increase among 18- to 24-year-olds at the 2017 election, although it did increase in areas with larger numbers of 18- to 24-year-olds. The noteworthy changes were actually found in the 25-44 age group, where turnout increased significantly and swung in great numbers towards Labour. The groups of voters Corbyn aimed to bring out in force did not turn up, and despite a successful campaign, Labour’s Plan A had failed.

This is Not a Game, The Single Market Must Now be Fought For!

The idea that anyone can tell us what a Leave vote represented is folly. The referendum was based upon our continued membership of the European Union, not upon what the terms of a theoretical exit would be. The idea that the 52% voted to take us out the single market, the customs union, and out of entities such as the European Court of Justice is ridiculous. Yet that is the drivel being spouted, not only by the Tories but by senior members of the Labour Party. There is no precedent for our exit from the EU whatsoever.

Because of this, Brexit is an absolute shambles. The government have absolutely no clue what they are doing and contradict each other one day to the next, and so do the opposition. The only party with clarity on these issues are the EU, and they will be licking their lips at the prospect of two years of discussions with David Davis. With a hung parliament, and the government lacking their own majority to enforce such a hard Brexit, the Labour front bench could play a divisive role in the future of our relations with the EU, and whether we stay within the single market. But alas, they are now standing back. As Rob Francis puts it quite simply, Labour and Corbyn should be leading, not following.

Labour’s stance on Brexit is, let’s face it, is anybody’s guess. Last Sunday on Andrew Marr, Jeremy Corbyn said that a Labour government would leave the single market because it is dependent on membership of the EU, which is both wrong, and harmful. Norway is one example of a country who are not in the EU but have full membership within the single market, and Corbyn knows this. By Wednesday, his Chancellor said the opposite, then Dianne Abbott mimicked this before Barry Gardiner said that we should leave both the single market and the customs union!

I do understand the arguments behind Labour not landing on one concrete position regarding Brexit, as the party hopes to capitalise on a changing public mood and Tory mistakes. But there are times when national interest comes first. Leaving the single market would be catastrophic for the UK’s economy, and even if Brexit led to a Labour government, leaving the single market would make it even harder and more treacherous for Labour to meet their manifesto spending pledges. The IFS has forecast that leaving the single market for a free trade agreement could cause a £31bn hit to the public finances, extending austerity even further.

The Centre Ground is Torn Apart – but Moderates Time Will Come Again

Politics is very fluid, it is ever changing, and it must, as it must ebb and flow along with the public opinion and the Overton window. Traditionally, elections are won in the centre ground, as the party that appeal best to them traditionally gain their majorities. There is a big difference between centrism and the centre ground; both Labour and the Tories have never really been centrist parties, but have both managed to take the centre ground for themselves over the years. There is only one ‘centrist party’ in the UK, and they have only ever been the small party in a coalition.

The spectrum and makeup of UK politics are ever-changing, but arguably over the past 2 years, it has shifted more radically than ever before. The Tories have taken a lurch to the right through Brexit, and since Corbyn’s leadership election victory Labour has moved to the left wing, although their manifesto will have told you another story. The Liberal Democrats have been demolished, and both Labour/Tory moderates find themselves on the fringes of the parties they once commanded. Traditionally, the UK has never strayed too far from the centre ground, but due to the radical paths both main parties are treading, the public is finding itself being pulled in different directions.

Therefore, the UK currently finds itself more divided than ever. The greatest divide right now is between Remainers and Leavers, even within each single party, as the Tories feud on Europe never seems to cease. Through the 2017 election we also now see big divides in age, social class, education levels, towns and cities, globalisation, and liberalism, as one side plucks for May’s Tories, and the other Corbyn’s Labour. Public opinion is shifting at a greater speed than ever before, but it is not simply lurching one way. As the latest BSA findings highlight, on some areas Britain’s opinions are moving to the left, and on others, to the right.

The Fight for Credibility

Politics these days is far cry from its predecessors. It’s manic, very much in real time, and lacks credibility. For us pragmatic, democratic, centre left or centrist voters, we yearn for the days of strong leaders, real news, and credibility in spades. This week, Theresa May and her minority government lacking any mandate put forward their pledges in the Queens Speech, a thin one at that, and it lacked substance, and a lot of promises from the manifesto released just last month.

The Queens Speech effectively saw the end to the grammar schools debate, the fox hunting farce, the school meals slip up, and showed no clarity on the government’s plan for Brexit. Theresa May is a dead PM walking, simply keeping the seat warm for one of her fellow cabinet members in the next 12-24 months. On the other side of the commons Jeremy Corbyn kept up his momentum from the election by ripping into May’s motley gang, and propelling Labour into slender poll leads this week. This was one of the shortest Queen’s Speeches of all time, and showed the fragility of the Tories position, and the lack of credible leadership they command right now.

Things are not going to get any easier for the government either. They are yet to strike a deal with the DUP, a deal which will further toxify their brand, and this week also saw the beginning of Brexit negotiations, something Labour can exploit. Davies vs Barnier is a David v Goliath situation, if David has his hands tied behind his back, and the lack of brain cells to throw a stone. It’s clear the Tories will cave throughout the talks, and the EU will be free to make a clear example of us. We look set to leave the single market and the customs union, and Labour should be forcing their way through this open goal.

For the first time this week, polls show Britons don’t want a no deal situation, prefer single market access to immigration controls, and even maybe slightly regret their decisions. Labour must capitalise on this, which is what makes McDonnell’s comments so worrying. McDonnell pledged last week to leave the single market, something which will not please many of Labour’s voters who voted this way for a soft Brexit, and who could very easily slip back over to the Liberal Democrats.

Time to Think the Unthinkable?

We are now less than a week away from heading to the polling booths, and suddenly, we seem to have an actual contest on our hands. Over the past month, the Tories lead has collapsed. Their average polling lead has fallen from 16% in early April, to just 5.3% now, and YouGov has even gone as far to predict a possible hung parliament at this stage. Britain Elects, who use the polls of polls average, have the Tories increasing their majority to roughly 70, but this is still a long way off the 150+ majority we looked to be heading towards just a few weeks ago. The question many are asking, could Corbyn do it?

One of the main reasons for the turn in fortunes has been both parties’ campaign performances, which like the poll turn, looked highly unlikely a few weeks ago. It’s clear that May’s campaign has damaged her reputation among the public, and the Conservative’s campaign has been to put it frank, shocking. From the lack of costings in the published manifesto, to the dreaded ‘Dementia Tax’, and the refusal to turn up at the recent live television debates, May’s impregnable brand has taken a big hit. For the first time since she took office, more Britons are dissatisfied (50%) than satisfied with her performance as PM (43%), although she does still hold a sizable lead in popularity over Corbyn.

On the other hand, Corbyn’s popularity is on the rise. Last month roughly 15% thought he’d make a better PM than May, this has grown to roughly 35% now. Whether it’s a heck of a lot of media training, unity across the Labour Party, or a willingness to adapt, it has brought improvements. Corbyn and Labour have had a positive campaign so far, although they have been given a helping hand by May and the Tories. Corbyn has shown in the past that it’s within election campaigns he seems to shine brightest, and his performances in debates has shown huge advances.

Another positive for Labour has been their manifesto. As I stated previously here, Labour’s manifesto policies have received widespread support from the public. 58% support re-nationalising the railways, water companies, and other utilities, 61% support the increase in minimum wage, 52% support increasing the top rate of tax, 64% back abolishing zero-hour contracts, 53% want universal free school meals for primary school students, and 59% back better rent control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve seen this all before. We’ve seen much of these election signs before.

Incompetence, or Confidence?

Although Labour’s draft manifesto was leaked somewhat early, this week was ‘Manifesto Week’, where the main parties outlined their plans, pledges, and policies for government. The Conservatives launched theirs in Halifax on Thursday, under the banner ‘Forward, Together’, representing the steps the UK takes forward as we leave the European Union in 2019. However, you only have to flip over to page 2 to see the true meaning and message of their election campaign: ‘Theresa May’s Team’. This has been a campaign built on the idea of her against Corbyn, rather than the Tories against the Labour Party.

The Manifesto certainly matched the conservatism brand of politics, but in terms of what the Conservatives stand for, and their audience, it can be argued there’s definite change. So, what were the key pledges? Those with assets over 100k will now have to pay for care out of the value of their house, immigration will be reduced to the tens of thousands, companies will be charged to employ skilled workers from outside the EU, the pension triple-lock will be scrapped, Britain will leave the single market, grammar schools reintroduced, increased funding for education and health, and corporation tax lowered.

Once again, the date to end the budget deficit has been pushed back. In 2010, we were told a surplus by 2014. By 2014, it was 2017. And now, it’s the middle of the next decade. This isn’t the only policy or pledge rehashed or pushed back. The 2015 manifesto said, “Yes to the single market”, and the 2017 manifesto says the opposite. The 2015 manifesto wanted to ‘eliminate’ child poverty, and the 2017 edition wants to ‘reduce levels’. This wasn’t on a manifesto, rather a bus, but there’s no sign of the extra £350 million a week for the NHS; just like Boris, it’s message carrier.

Labour must move towards the centre, and the issues that matter

As we all know, Labour’s situation is dire. We trail the Conservatives on average by 17 points in the polls, Corbyn trails May by 40%, and the electorate trust the Tories over us in key areas such as health and the economy. We are roughly 20-25 net points behind our position at this point in the last parliament, and are heading for electoral wipeout in 2020. Most of us hope and pray for the resignation and removal of Corbyn as leader, but this seems a distant dream; so we must work with what we have, and to an extent lessen the damage.

Despite the fact we have a party leader who is hugely unpopular, we have also been let down by the leaderships attitude towards engagement and the media, and their unwillingness to communicate. The last 2-3 weeks have shown a slight improvement in policy and spin, but more must be done if Labour is to stand a chance. We, as a party, are not offering hope or security to voters up and down the country, and this simply, will be election disaster.

It’s important for the left, and for Labour to focus on the issues that matter to ordinary, every-day voters. Too often the left gets distracted by abstract notions, and focus on subjects and policy that simply do not matter to swing voters when they reach the ballot. The current leadership, and the membership, need to realise that hard-left views will never win an election. Labour needs to move into the centre-left, and talk the language of those who we need to vote for us in 2020. Corbyn supporters talk of concentrating on enthusing non-voters, but this is folly. The central ground is where elections are won, and lost.

Ed Balls – Speaking Out Review

Arguably the most anticipated political memoirs of 2016 was from Ed Balls; the ex-Shadow Chancellor, shadow cabinet minister, Treasury adviser, and all-round extraordinary dancer. As the blurb highlights, on the 7^th May 2015, Ed was one day away from possibly becoming Chancellor of the Exchequer, but instead he woke up the next day without a job. Ed’s book looks at the highs and low of his life and career so far, from his early days being right hand man in the Treasury to Gordon Brown, all the way to his appearance on Celebrity Great British Bake Off.

There were so many reasons I was hyped for this book. Firstly, I’m a big fan of the man himself. Ed is a great character, a bright mind, and a big inspiration for me in both politics, and the Labour Party. Another draw was my keen interest in politics, and the stories behind the scenes. There’s been many a time that I’ve thought of entering politics over the past few years, being able to help those up and down the country who need it, and this book could offer a great insight into the front line. And finally, arguably the biggest reason of them all, the Gordon Brown anecdotes.

Balls’s autobiography looks over his life in an unconventional format. Rather than following the events of his life chronologically, each chapter focuses on one lesson or subject, and Balls reflects on how this subject has touched his life in politics. Some of the subjects are quite personal, deep, and moving; for example, the chapters that focus on vulnerability, mistakes, and purpose. Other chapters such as markets, spin, images, and opposition are much more applicable to his life, and offer the key insight and knowledge into the workings of parliament.