A Year of Keir

Just over a year ago Keir Starmer was elected the new leader of the Labour Party, taking 56% of the vote, a landslide. It’s fair to say that Starmer’s first year in the role has been unprecedented. Usually, a party leadership victory would ensure front-page headlines, interview spreads, and immense exposure across the various news channel. However, the extraordinary times we were in meant that the leader sat on the backfoot as the country sat in the grip of a pandemic. Where most opposition leaders could stamp their vision, Keir Starmer did not have the opportunity.

This is especially unhelpful when you consider the state of the party he inherited from his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. When Starmer became leader last year Labour was roughly 20-25% behind in the polls. His task was an immense one. Slowly but surely however, the Labour leader found his voice, his own vision, and both he and the party began to eat into the lead.

Simply by not being Jeremy, and by coming across as clearly competent, able to lead and so on, he made great strides in the general standing of the party in the country. Add in his performances within PMQ’s, and the governments shoddy handling of the pandemic, and the early period was a success. Starmer was able to put in place a brand-new general secretary of his choice and built a majority on the party’s NEC. The Labour leader also able to show his ruthless side by sacking Rebecca Long Bailey after she failed to conform with his demands following her support of an anti-Semitic quote, and took the whip away from the former leader, Jeremy Corbyn.  

By the end of 2020, the average Conservative poll lead had dropped from 20-25% to just a couple of points, Starmer was enjoying the highest opposition leader ratings since Tony Blair, and he was even ahead of the PM in most ‘Best PM’ polls. Although only the first step had been taken, it had been a great first calendar year in the role.

Since vaccines were first administered, many had predicted a possible vaccine bounce for the Conservatives and Boris Johnson. Although we couldn’t be sure of the level of such, it was clear hope for the future and a slow return to normality would benefit the government. This problem isn’t just Keir’s, most incumbent governments around the world have benefitted from leading in the crisis. People just want things to get back to normal – they don’t want to mix politics with pandemics.

Since the vaccine rollout began to motor in January, the Conservatives began to increase their polling lead, and by April their average lead had recovered to 8-10 percentage points. Boris Johnson’s approval ratings have also significantly improved, Keir’s own ratings have slowly dropped – although they are still higher than all opposition leaders of recent year – and the number of people approving of the government handling of the pandemic has increased. One lesson we should all take from this is the short-term memory of politics, the vaccine bounce has caused many to forget the errors of last year.

One big problem for Starmer is the public view that a Labour government probably wouldn’t have done any better. 31% said they would have managed the pandemic better, 21% said he would have done worse; and 30% said he would have made no difference. Regarding vaccine rollout just 19% think they would have handled it better, and 23% think he would have done a worse job.

Recent polling changes have only increased disquiet from the left of the party – although he was never really given much of a chance. From mocking his use of the word ‘forensic’, to his lawyer style performances, his kneeling photo-op at the height of Black Lives Matter, and his removal of Jeremy Corbyn from the party, the Labour left have always been quick to criticise. This despite their anger at the right of the party supposedly doing the same throughout Corbyn’s premiership.

Starmer and the party’s argument is that during a pandemic the people want the opposition to support the government where possible, not oppose for oppositions sake. In April 2020, almost two-thirds of Brits told YouGov that they would support a government of national unity. Starmer could show more passion and fire in his speeches, but it’s hardly surprising when he’s a former lawyer. As Paul Waugh puts it, his biggest weakness is that he’s not very political and we are living in a very ideologically political age.

Today is a monumental day for the polls. There are elections in Scotland, Wales, local council elections, and even a by-election in Hartlepool. The outlook does not currently look promising for Labour and Starmer. Polling shows the party looks set to lose their seat in Hartlepool, not make progress in Scotland or Wales, and even possibly lose seats/councils in the local elections. Many on the left are already calling for Starmer to resign should this happen – but I don’t recall them calling for the same action when Corbyn encountered such big defeats.

However, the party have seen a small bounce in the last couple of weeks, as the Tory sleaze stories have trickled through. Although the polling numbers vary wildly, in some polls Labour have reduced the lead to 3-6 points, if this came to fruition in the locals, the party would be able to make some significant seat gains. This is a truly big test of public opinion and sentiment towards both the Labour leader and the party.

Earlier this week Starmer was already beginning to manage expectations. When asked about the polls showing the Conservatives gaining Hartlepool, he said that nobody “realistically” thought he could turn round his party “from the worst general election result since 1935 to a position to win the next general election within a period of one year”. Despite the party holding onto the seat in 2019 under Corbyn, this was only due to the Brexit party splitting the Conservative vote, and if the Brexit party not been on the ballot, they would have lost. If Labour do lose the seat, of course Keir will take the criticism, but this has been coming for a long time.

However, despite the shift in the last few months, there are reasons to be optimistic for the future. Firstly, the main toxin is the Labour Party brand. After Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn the number of voters who view Labour as toxic, divided, and out of touch have never been higher. Despite Starmer boasting strong approval numbers, there is still a lot to do to turn around the party image. As one Starmer ally says “Corbyn remains a terrible albatross with the voters, even though he is currently suspended and ino longer a force. That will take time to shift.”

Starmer is already showing signs of bringing the party back to normality. IpsosMori finds that 48% of all voters say Starmer has changed Labour for the better, with just 4 per cent saying it has got worse. His ratings amongst Labour voters also vastly outperform his predecessor. 48% of 2019 Labour voters approve of how Starmer is performing, while just 12 per cent disapprove. Compare that to Jeremy Corbyn at the time of the 2019 election: 52% of 2017 Labour voters had an unfavourable opinion of him, while just 43% had a favourable opinion.

As I highlighted earlier, these May elections are being fought off the back of a vaccine bounce. This will not be the case going forwards. In the same way that Churchill lost the 1945 election despite winning the war, it’s unlikely Johnson will be judged primarily on the pandemic, but how he rebuilds the country over the next few years. As we head out of furlough, it’s likely we will see increasing levels of unemployment, and homelessness, and if the outlook of the economy does not turn around quickly, the narrative will change rapidly.

Starmer has plenty of time to change the narrative and image surrounding him. No opposition leader is defined by their first 12 months in the role. Starmer already has decent approval ratings compared to previous opposition leaders, and the rather large group of voters who have a “don’t know” view of Starmer offers a big potential upswing if they begin to like what they see. The public haven’t really had the chance to see too much of Starmer the past 12 months, and the PM has been able to stand in front of a lectern each day to millions.

Another loss for Starmer that all other opposition leaders have had are a supporting wall of MPs behind him in the commons due to the pandemic. “He has been denied what every single other opposition leader has had, which is the weekly opportunity to massively rally your troops with a good performance in PMQs. He often does really well but it doesn’t have the same effect.”. As another puts it, “I’d love anyone to show passion in an empty room.”

Despite the recent poll shifts, Boris Johnson and the Conservatives also seem to be losing their grip on the red wall seats that won him the 2019 election. According to an opinion poll for The Sunday Times, Labour is narrowly ahead in the 43 red wall seats the Tories won in the December 2019 general election, although this does heavily vary across other polls. Joe Biden’s victory last year has also offered a glimpse into how the left can win. Although there are many differences between the nations, Biden managed to campaign as a moderate and is governing as a radical, a recipe Starmer is looking to copy.

By Friday morning, the narratives will be sewn, and it may likely be a disappointing night for Starmer. However, this should not hide the progress the party has made in the past 12 months and should not alter the signs of optimism for the future. As Martin Fletcher highlights, Keir Starmer is everything that Boris Johnson is not; honest, dependable, a grown-up, and a substantial record of achievement behind him, and he is the type of leader the country needs, and may, in time, want.