A Step Towards Number 10

It’s fair to say after a triumphant 2022 seeing the back of two Conservative Prime Ministers in Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, 2023 has been a more taxing year for Keir. Rishi Sunak and his brand of relative competency have meant that Labour’s poll leads have slowly reduced – albeit still a comfortable lead – and he has had to deal with backlash to both his party’s recent Twitter attack ads and the hiring of Sue Gray. Both felt like avoidable own goals, so heading into Thursday’s local elections it was imperative that the results showed Labour progress.

Luckily, for Starmer, Thursday was the perfect reboot for Labour. They gained 536 councillors and 22 councils propelling them to become the largest party of councillors for the first time since 2002. The Tories lost over 1000 seats, exceeding the figure that was highlighted to be a ‘worst case scenario’ by their own party just last week. They lost over half the councils they were defending, in all areas of the country. The Liberal Democrats and Green Party also had exceptional nights, gaining 408 and 241 councillors respectively.

All signs point towards success for Keir and Labour heading into next year’s election – however, Sky News decided to throw out a General Election projection based on that day’s vote. The headlines wrote themselves; despite the gains, Labour would be short of a majority and relying on the Liberal Democrats, or only able to form a minority government next year. I get why they made the projection, but for me, it’s a shoddy attempt at headline-chasing.

Firstly, not all of the country even voted. Two main regions that did not vote are Scotland and London, two areas of big Labour support, especially with their resurgence against the SNP. Secondly, there is much more tactical voting in local elections than there is in general elections. In the locals, on Thursday 40% of the vote went to the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Independents. In a general election that does not happen; they maybe hit 25% max.

A Year of Keir

Just over a year ago Keir Starmer was elected the new leader of the Labour Party, taking 56% of the vote, a landslide. It’s fair to say that Starmer’s first year in the role has been unprecedented. Usually, a party leadership victory would ensure front-page headlines, interview spreads, and immense exposure across the various news channel. However, the extraordinary times we were in meant that the leader sat on the backfoot as the country sat in the grip of a pandemic. Where most opposition leaders could stamp their vision, Keir Starmer did not have the opportunity.

This is especially unhelpful when you consider the state of the party he inherited from his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. When Starmer became leader last year Labour was roughly 20-25% behind in the polls. His task was an immense one. Slowly but surely however, the Labour leader found his voice, his own vision, and both he and the party began to eat into the lead.

Simply by not being Jeremy, and by coming across as clearly competent, able to lead and so on, he made great strides in the general standing of the party in the country. Add in his performances within PMQ’s, and the governments shoddy handling of the pandemic, and the early period was a success. Starmer was able to put in place a brand-new general secretary of his choice and built a majority on the party’s NEC. The Labour leader also able to show his ruthless side by sacking Rebecca Long Bailey after she failed to conform with his demands following her support of an anti-Semitic quote, and took the whip away from the former leader, Jeremy Corbyn.  

By the end of 2020, the average Conservative poll lead had dropped from 20-25% to just a couple of points, Starmer was enjoying the highest opposition leader ratings since Tony Blair, and he was even ahead of the PM in most ‘Best PM’ polls. Although only the first step had been taken, it had been a great first calendar year in the role.

Don’t Confuse 2020 with 2016

In 2016, we entered election day almost expecting a Clinton win. That was wrong of us. We made the mistake of believing that someone like Trump could not win the presidency, and we mistook a 70-80% chance of a Clinton victory as being a done deal. Ironically, entering 2020, people are now making the opposite mistake. Trump enters the 2020 election with a slimmer chance of victory than 4 years ago, with most forecasters giving him roughly 10-15% chance of victory. However, the general gut consensus seems to be that his chances are understated, and a Trump victory would be the fitting way to end such a terrible year. But this is wrong. This election is vastly different to its predecessor, and here are a few reasons why.

Incumbency – Trump is fighting this election as the incumbent president rather than the outsider maverick. Many Trump voters swung his way because they wanted something different and thought he might shake things up. Of course, there may be many that believe they made the right call, but there will also be a lot of voters who regret that decision. Trump has been in the White House for 4 years, and now has a record to defend, and there will not be many voters across the country who have not made their mind up on the president.

The Hilary Factor – One huge advantage for Trump in 2016 was his opponent. Hilary Clinton was a very divisive figure across the country, and her approval ratings were not good. In the final week before the election Clinton had an average net approval of -12.6, compared to Trump’s -21. If we compare this to the final week before the 2020 election, Trump has a net approval of -12.8, and Biden +6.2. Whereas Trump was seen as the best of a bad choice for many 4 years ago, the same cannot be said now.

Narrow Path to Victory – When it comes to today’s election, there are of course the usual swing states to keep an eye on. The big difference between now and 2016 is, according to current polling, there is a much narrower path to victory for Trump. 4 years ago, Trump was polling significantly better across the rust belt (WI, PA, OH, MI), which meant even if he did not perform across the sun belt (FL, NC, GA, AZ), his plan A, there was still a route for him to the White House. The polling across the rust belt for Trump is much worse this year, which means that Trump needs to sweep the sun belt, and hope to hold PA. Although anything can happen, if Biden holds PA (Pennsylvania), Trump’s chances of re-election are tiny.

COVID-19 – If COVID-19 had never existed, this election would be vastly different, and almost certainly much closer. Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been an absolute shambles, meaning the country has never had a handle on cases, and the US is arguably the worst affected country worldwide. The timings of state case waves will also hinder the President. Many of the sun belt states had huge waves over the summer, and in the run up to the election the rust belt has seen some of the biggest case increases, highlighting Trump’s poor handling of the crisis. Not good news for the President, who is already polling significantly behind across the rust belt.

Trump can of course still win this election, but it would take a large polling error larger than that of 2016. If Biden holds WI, MN, MI as expected, then winning PA would signal the end for Trump. Even if Trump takes PA, there are a lot of routes for Biden through the sun belt states of FL, AZ, NC, or GA. Trump needs everything to land just right for victory, but maybe that would be 2020 summed up.

Plan B Politics

As Stephen Bush’s piece last week highlighted, there are a finite number of messages a political party can run on. Typically, these positions don’t change between elections because they are so simple: “things would work better with us in charge”. 2017, however, was a turning point for both parties.

When Jeremy Corbyn rose to victory in Labour’s leadership election in 2015, he did so on the back of a promise of a new type of politics. Many chose him because he offered something the other three candidates seemingly did not, and that was hope. Corbyn famously asserted he would bring a new straight talking, honest politics into the Labour party, something he really hasn’t done. He was meant to be the politician who could finally energise the dwindling youth vote and bring non-voters out into the voting booths for the first time.

Fast forward to June 2017, and Labour had returned from a near 20-point deficit in the polls to force a hung parliament. A dismal campaign from Theresa May gave Corbyn the wind in his sails, and policies such as the abolishment of tuition fees had on the face of it galvanised the youth to an astonishing spike in turnout. However, as we now know, this wasn’t exactly the case.

Recently, the British Electoral Survey found that turnout did not increase among 18- to 24-year-olds at the 2017 election, although it did increase in areas with larger numbers of 18- to 24-year-olds. The noteworthy changes were actually found in the 25-44 age group, where turnout increased significantly and swung in great numbers towards Labour. The groups of voters Corbyn aimed to bring out in force did not turn up, and despite a successful campaign, Labour’s Plan A had failed.

Don’t Hold Your Breath on Another Snap Election

Many are pondering the simple question, when will the next UK general election take place? Due to the chaotic times at hand, many believe another early election is inevitable, and could well be next year. It’s easy to see why. The Tories have the slimmest of majorities being propped up by the DUP, Theresa May’s leadership is as strong and stable as a wet tissue, and she has enemies within her party waiting to pounce and drive her out of Downing Street.

However, I can tell you now there will not be an election in 2018, the reasons of which are plentiful. The first of which is Brexit. This week we moved onto the second stage of negotiations with the EU, which essentially considers the future relationship after we leave. This is where things get tricky, and it will take up most of the remaining 15 months before we leave. Expect very little time to be wasted on domestic policy until then, and there is no definitely no time to waste on another campaign and visit to the polls, no one in Westminster will want to risk it.

Another issue is no one in Westminster particularly is interested in even entertaining the thought of another election just yet. The Tories, first, do not want to risk the slim majority they currently hold, and their leader does not want to risk the house she lives in. The Tories also do not want to take a risk on their leader whom despite still being slightly more popular than Corbyn, would currently lose an election with Labour’s current slender poll lead.

The Tories will first want to find a successor to May, but not whilst she remains a useful tool. On the 2^nd June, May told the 1922 committee “I’ll serve as long as you want me”, and that is quite literal. When the Tories decide it’s time to go, she will go. The party has no other leader ready to step in, and none of the candidates wants to take any of the flak from Brexit. Boris is pushing himself out of the picture, Damian Green might yet have to resign, Davis is beaten from Brexit, Rudd has a very dangerous majority, and Hammond is as out of touch as it comes.

Still a Long Long Way to Go!

It’s no doubt that Thursday night was a very positive night for the Labour Party. When the snap election was called, the Tories were 15-20 points ahead in the polls, and a landslide was on the cards. Even when we all started heading to the polls on Thursday, most were expecting that Theresa May would increase her majority, and Labour would lose seats up and down the country.

Alas, the result was very different, and the likes of YouGov and Survation were proven right. When the exit poll came in, I couldn’t quite believe my eyes. When the exit poll came true, I still couldn’t quite believe my eyes. I was one of those expecting at least a 60+ majority for the Conservatives and May, and I was so happy to be proven completely wrong.

I didn’t expect Corbyn to excel like he had throughout the campaign, and I didn’t expect the youth to turnout in the way they did – both are good signs going forward. Especially the fact that young people are turning up to the polling booths, I just hope that they continue to do so, even when the leader isn’t Corbyn. Young people are the reason for Labour’s huge increase in vote share, and they must stay if Labour are going to continue to move forward.

What truly does worry me, is that so many on the left, and so many in the Labour Party seem to be viewing Thursday night as some sort of victory. Yes, the results were better than expected, but let’s stick to the facts. The Tories won; they have the most votes, the most seats, and they are once again back in Number 10, albeit propped up by the DUP. Labour still lost. And there is a still a long way to go if Labour wants to get back into power.

Time to Think the Unthinkable?

We are now less than a week away from heading to the polling booths, and suddenly, we seem to have an actual contest on our hands. Over the past month, the Tories lead has collapsed. Their average polling lead has fallen from 16% in early April, to just 5.3% now, and YouGov has even gone as far to predict a possible hung parliament at this stage. Britain Elects, who use the polls of polls average, have the Tories increasing their majority to roughly 70, but this is still a long way off the 150+ majority we looked to be heading towards just a few weeks ago. The question many are asking, could Corbyn do it?

One of the main reasons for the turn in fortunes has been both parties’ campaign performances, which like the poll turn, looked highly unlikely a few weeks ago. It’s clear that May’s campaign has damaged her reputation among the public, and the Conservative’s campaign has been to put it frank, shocking. From the lack of costings in the published manifesto, to the dreaded ‘Dementia Tax’, and the refusal to turn up at the recent live television debates, May’s impregnable brand has taken a big hit. For the first time since she took office, more Britons are dissatisfied (50%) than satisfied with her performance as PM (43%), although she does still hold a sizable lead in popularity over Corbyn.

On the other hand, Corbyn’s popularity is on the rise. Last month roughly 15% thought he’d make a better PM than May, this has grown to roughly 35% now. Whether it’s a heck of a lot of media training, unity across the Labour Party, or a willingness to adapt, it has brought improvements. Corbyn and Labour have had a positive campaign so far, although they have been given a helping hand by May and the Tories. Corbyn has shown in the past that it’s within election campaigns he seems to shine brightest, and his performances in debates has shown huge advances.

Another positive for Labour has been their manifesto. As I stated previously here, Labour’s manifesto policies have received widespread support from the public. 58% support re-nationalising the railways, water companies, and other utilities, 61% support the increase in minimum wage, 52% support increasing the top rate of tax, 64% back abolishing zero-hour contracts, 53% want universal free school meals for primary school students, and 59% back better rent control. But the truth of the matter is, we’ve seen this all before. We’ve seen much of these election signs before.