Change UK: Where it Went Wrong

It’s hard to believe that it was only three months ago that the mainstream press gathered in London’s County Hall to watch the launch of The Independent Group, a group made up of seven defecting Labour MPs. Their core message was clear; both the main parties were unfit for power and were inherently looking backwards; they wanted to create a new way of politics, one that looks forward. Just a couple of days later they were joined by three Tory MPs from the moderate wing of the party; MPs who had simply had enough of their party’s handling of Brexit.

At that point, everything seemed to be falling into place. As the two main parties were continuing to be torn apart over how to leave the European Union, the Independent Group were gaining airtime in place of the missing Liberal Democrats, and even before officially registering as a political party were reaching double figures in Westminster polls. However, after a promising start, the newly formed party have now lost their way and a series of gaffes have seen them slide to averaging less than 4% in current polls.

The group which offered such hope to many (including myself) have now become the laughingstock of Westminster, and the party is dying before it even learned to walk. The party was mocked for its choice of name – the main gripe being there is actually a choice of names, it’s rather bleak looking logo and its campaign for this week’s European elections. As Stephen Bush highlights, the party needed to set up it’s campaigning arm quickly, and that speed encouraged gaffes.

The new party received more than 2,000 applications from supporters to stand for this week’s elections, and several candidates turned out to have rather controversial past opinions or tweets. Although they boasted many great candidates including Gavin Esler, former Polish prime minister Jan Vincent-Rostowski and journalist Rachel Johnson, revealing them all at once meant the names got lost in the news as opposed to the Brexit party who staggered out their ‘star’ names which included the sister of Jacob Rees-Mogg, and former shadow home secretary, Ann Widdecombe.

Local Elections Roundup

May may just be the final nail in May’s coffin. Before the likely bruising at next week’s European elections, the local elections at the start of the month saw the Conservative Party lose control of nearly a third of their councils, their worst result in two decades. The party lost over 1300 seats, and their vote share also plummeted. The PM’s reaction was to downplay the situation and push the narrative towards the right of the party saying that the public wants us to sort Brexit. A simple message to the ERG – vote for my deal or face Labour in government.

Remain voters have been leaving the Tories in droves since the referendum as the party slides towards a Hard Brexit, and it now seems Brexiteers are now following. Although the majority continued to vote for the party in the locals, many are leaving in swathes to support Farage’s Brexit Party in the run-up to the European elections at the end of the month. The simple fact of the matter is that the Conservatives chose the wrong side. Brexiteers in the party was never going to accept any form of the deal with the EU, and May’s failure is leading us towards PM Johnson.

When the governing party loses over a thousand seats, the reality is that the opposition should be making colossal gains if they hope to win the next general election. Labour actually managed to also lose seats, 84 in fact, lose control on 6 councils, and see a significant drop in its projected vote share. The main reason for their performance is their stance on Brexit; sitting on the fence worked in 2017 but we now find ourselves in a different environment. The party’s failure to move towards a public vote has seen members switch allegiances to other remain parties including the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and the newly formed Change UK, and they fail to look like a government in waiting.

One Thing That Unites Us on Brexit, We’re All Losers Here

Quiet weeks in Westminster are now a thing of the past, and the Brexit soap opera rolls on. After securing an extension to Article 50 (dependant on the outcome of particular votes) MPs descended on the Commons this week in the hope to finally agree on something. Alas, they could not.

A series of indicative votes were held on Wednesday to see which Brexit resolutions were the most popular with MPs. These options included no deal, a peoples vote, a customs union, Labour’s plan, and a Common Market 2.0 – in effect the Norway deal. Although none commanded a majority, the real winners were the permanent customs union, and rather surprisingly the Beckett amendment for a peoples vote on the agreed deal which attracted the most ayes.

On Friday Theresa May tried once more to get her deal through parliament, albeit this time just the withdrawal agreement without the political declaration. The vote was much closer but once again fell short leaving us in limbo once more. Next week will see more indicative votes in the hope to reach an impasse, but as it stands, we were due to leave on the 12^th April unless a compromise is found, or May swallows her pride and calls for a long extension – or even possibly a general election.

Since the referendum, I’ve felt a lot of emotion, whether it be anger, sadness, or a sense of loss. But a new feeling hit me this week, one single thought. “Why on earth are we doing this?” Because at the end of the day, we’re all just losers in this madness, and here’s why…

The Calamity of No Deal

We are now in mid-February, a mere 41 days from the date that Britain is set to leave the European Union, and still a no deal Brexit is on the table. A month ago, MPs rejected Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement by a majority of 230, and on the 29^th passed the Brady amendment, essentially calling for May to go back to Brussels and renegotiate the Irish backstop. The problem, however, is that the EU is not willing to renegotiate the deal, especially considering the backstop was the UK’s idea.

On the 27^th there are further opportunities for votes, however, it seems as though we may not have another meaningful vote until March. May’s plan is to make the choice a binary one – her deal or no deal, in the hope that MPs who wish to avoid a catastrophic no deal will back her. It’s a risky plan, and many sources now believe she is more than willing to follow through on a no deal. There are many in the cabinet who have previously announced they would resign if no deal became official government policy, but their actions are yet to match their words.

On the opposition benches, not much has changed either. Labour and Corbyn are still hoping to force a general election, however, most sensible voices now realise this is a lost cause. Last week the opposition leader wrote to the PM detailing 5 tests for Brexit; if she can meet them, he will back her. These tests included a permanent UK wide customs union, and alignment with the single market, rights, and protections. The issue is that these cross May’s ‘red lines’, so were rejected on sight.

The letter also dismayed many Labour MPs and members who back either an extension to Article 50 or a second referendum, neither of which are mentioned by Corbyn. It’s hard to have sympathy though. Corbyn has been an ardent Brexiteer since the UK entered the common market over 40 years ago, called for article 50 to be invoked the day after the referendum in 2016, and has not given any credence to the notion of a new vote on the UK’s membership of the EU since. So his latest stance can hardly be a surprising one.

What Changes Now?

If like me you’ve been scrolling through Twitter endlessly today, you might think the government is in the middle of collapsing. After David Davis and Steve Baker’s resignation just before midnight last night, and Boris Johnson following suit this afternoon, it’s easy to see why. After a supposed cabinet agreement was produced at Chequers last week, the two Brexit heavyweights decided that enough was enough, and left in protest to the governments swing towards a softer Brexit.

This afternoon in the commons May was defiant. She talked up her Chequers deal, and in a likely attempt to put an end to any further resignations reminded her party that we would be leaving the single market, customs union, and ending free movement of people into the country. Which, unsurprisingly, doesn’t match the message coined last week. As broken by Kevin Schofield a couple of hours ago, May and her team have also maintained that she will fight on regardless, and will take on any vote of no confidence put forward by the backbenches.

It’s hard to see why that wouldn’t be the case. Sure, the ERG and the backbenches have the numbers to put in their letters to Brady, but I highly doubt they have the numbers to win the vote. Many Tory MPs who currently sit on the fence know that a change in leader would lead to a leader in favour of no deal, and arguably could lead to Corbyn making his way into number 10. May also knows that if she does fend off the vote of no confidence party rules maintain she would be safe for a further 12 months, which would take us well into the transitional period of leaving the EU.

As I put forward in a piece late last year, Theresa May has always been merely a tool for the Tories as long as they need her. Whoever leads throughout the Brexit process will be tainted afterwards, and many leading Tory candidates will want to avoid this. May was, and still likely is, the person that will deliver Brexit, and would then likely resign or be forced out shortly after. Many colleagues would rather hold off and use the ‘Brexit betrayal’ line, and few Conservatives will want May anywhere near another general election after last year’s debacle.

Time for Labour to Lead

It’s hard to be a so-called moderate in the UK these days. Not only do you find both parties veering further towards each wing, you also see that UK politics is now completely devoid of rationality as we hurtle towards Brexit. Alastair Campbell describes Labour’s position as “constructive ambiguity”, I find that to be a kind assessment. Both parties believe the argument is sorted, and both are under the false illusion that a hard Brexit was voted for.

Labour’s policy seems to be to appeal to leavers whilst hoping that their pro-European membership wouldn’t feel compelled to vote for any other party. At some point, this has to give. Mark Carney recently revealed that household incomes are about £900 per household lower than was forecast back in May 2016, and due to Brexit, the economy is roughly 2% lower than it would have been had we voted to remain in the EU two years ago. If Corbyn and McDonnell want to implement their manifesto promises, a hard Brexit is simply out of the question.

In 2017, the ambiguity worked. Leavers felt that Corbyn wanted to leave the EU as much as them, and Remainers saw Labour as the only route to blunt May’s push for hard Brexit. Again, this has to give, and it seems it’s the Remainers who are buckling. In 2017 the party was able to shift the focus onto other issues such as healthcare, but with Brexit day looming that strategy is out of the window. Only 26% think that Labour’s position on Brexit is clear, while 60% believe it’s unclear.

The public overwhelmingly favours the PM’s handling of Brexit, with 32% approval compared to a measly 19% for Corbyn. May is also impressing far more leave voters than Corbyn is remainers, 40% of leavers back May, just 26% of those who voted to remain back Corbyn’s treatment of Brexit. Labour is also losing the support of young people; last year 19% more 18-34-year-olds backed Corbyn over May, now the PM has a 2% lead. As Labour members shift, Corbyn stays rooted.

The Politics we Deserve?

“Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right”, as the old song goes. Used to ridicule the music industry by Gerry Rafferty, but instead seems more fitting in encapsulating the current political climate. Actually, it would be kind. Clowns? Maybe the one from IT. Jokers? More like absolute jokes.

Obama once said, “You get the politicians you deserve”. Although I see the reason, I don’t personally think it’s quite that simple. Sure, if you vote in Donald Trump you get that kind of president and voting for Brexit has paved the way for what we have in Britain. But is that the public’s fault? Politicians have never really been particularly liked. At best, people tend to be rather apathetic towards the culture of politics. That was certainly the case during the noughties, where turnout at elections reached all-time lows. The problem is, that is misinterpreted.

Certain members of the left like to jump on New Labour for bringing in this apathy, especially throughout the younger generations. The problem is, it’s because everything was running well. Surely that’s the point of politicians. They run everything smoothly so that our lives pass by without even hearing from them between election campaigns. Usually, political engagement comes from instability, anger, and despair at who is in office. So, is it such a great thing?

Plan B Politics

As Stephen Bush’s piece last week highlighted, there are a finite number of messages a political party can run on. Typically, these positions don’t change between elections because they are so simple: “things would work better with us in charge”. 2017, however, was a turning point for both parties.

When Jeremy Corbyn rose to victory in Labour’s leadership election in 2015, he did so on the back of a promise of a new type of politics. Many chose him because he offered something the other three candidates seemingly did not, and that was hope. Corbyn famously asserted he would bring a new straight talking, honest politics into the Labour party, something he really hasn’t done. He was meant to be the politician who could finally energise the dwindling youth vote and bring non-voters out into the voting booths for the first time.

Fast forward to June 2017, and Labour had returned from a near 20-point deficit in the polls to force a hung parliament. A dismal campaign from Theresa May gave Corbyn the wind in his sails, and policies such as the abolishment of tuition fees had on the face of it galvanised the youth to an astonishing spike in turnout. However, as we now know, this wasn’t exactly the case.

Recently, the British Electoral Survey found that turnout did not increase among 18- to 24-year-olds at the 2017 election, although it did increase in areas with larger numbers of 18- to 24-year-olds. The noteworthy changes were actually found in the 25-44 age group, where turnout increased significantly and swung in great numbers towards Labour. The groups of voters Corbyn aimed to bring out in force did not turn up, and despite a successful campaign, Labour’s Plan A had failed.

What is it that Divides Us?

Jo Cox gave her maiden speech in the House of Commons on Wednesday 3^rd June 2015. Describing her constituency, globalisation, and immigration, Jo inspirationally said that “we are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us”. After her death just a week before the EU referendum, the hashtag and movement #MoreInCommon went global and ever since has been used as a means of attempting to heal the conflicts and divides in society.

Of course, it’s true in many ways. We are all the same. But there’s no doubt that we should be worried about the growing divisions festering around us all. Traditionally, the big divides were that of political party identification, this has since been replaced by simply: Remain or Leave. It’s understandable why; despite both party leaders playing down the issue, it will define us and our country for generations to come. The referendum formalised a deep cultural divide stemming across many factions. Leavers are pitched against remainers, the young against the old, the affluent against the impoverished, graduates against non-graduates, and towns against cities.

In the past, it was class that was the main predictor of a person’s likely voting behaviour. This has significantly narrowed, with both support for Labour among the middle class and support for the Conservatives among the working class rising by 12 points between 2015 and 2017. The big divide in voting behaviour is now age. At the 2017 general election, the generation gap was the largest since polling records began. Among 18-to-24-year olds Labour led by 35%, but among over 65’s the Tories held a 36-point lead. In the referendum three-quarters of 18-to-24-year-olds voted Remain, but two-thirds of over-65s favoured Brexit.

Education was also a big factor in both votes. In the 2017 election the Tories led by 22% among people with ‘low educational qualifications’, but those with ‘high-level educational qualifications’ plucked for Labour by 17% more. In the referendum, those with GCSE or lower qualifications voted 70:30 to Leave, but those with a degree voted 68:32 in favour of Remain. There’s also another reason for these stark contrasts: the direction and leadership of the two main political parties under current leadership. May’s Conservatives have lurched to the right, and Corbyn’s Labour to the left, and people are being forced to choose a side.

A Year in Review

What a year it’s been – both for me, and this blog. When asked to describe 2017, people will think Brexit and the election, and despite watching the news in horror for most of the year, this has at least been good for my blog. I definitely haven’t had a shortage of items to write about. At the start of the year, I set myself the challenge of posting a piece a week, and I’ve kept to that without it (in my opinion) being detrimental to the quality.

So, what’s happened this year in my personal life? Not much to be honest. After the host of changes in 2016 which included graduating, new job, moving into my own flat, 2017 has been quiet. I’ve had a good year at work where I’ve had a raise, took on some side projects, and feel I’m getting closer to a promotion. Outside of work I’ve been involved in a lot of my own projects which I’m excited for, but currently I, unfortunately, do not have the time to knuckle down on them as much as I’d like.

2017 is also a year where my mental health has been relatively kind to me. Bar some low points in the autumn I’ve been fairly in control throughout the year, and I hope that can continue into the new year. One disappointment personally is that I am still very single. I obviously do not want to rush into a relationship for the sake of it, but I have been single for a long time now and am extremely sick of it. So, what are some of my highlights of the year…